NFL Playoff Simulator 2026
The rest of the season, played 10,000 times. Here is how often each team gets in.
Last run when the page refreshed, with every finished game counted.
AFC
| Team | Record | Make playoffs | Win division | No. 1 seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 99% | 97% | 22% |
 Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 99% | 94% | 39% |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 96% | 52% | 11% |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 94% | 57% | 11% |
 Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 93% | 47% | 11% |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 87% | 38% | 6% |
 New England Patriots | 5-4 | 59% | 6% | 1% |
 Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | 30% | 3% | <1% |
 Houston Texans | 3-5 | 22% | 4% | 0% |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 12% | 1% | 0% |
 Baltimore Ravens | 4-5 | 9% | 1% | 0% |
 New York Jets | 2-7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Indianapolis Colts | 2-7 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
NFC
| Team | Record | Make playoffs | Win division | No. 1 seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | 98% | 91% | 52% |
 Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 89% | 32% | 17% |
 Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 83% | 31% | 14% |
 Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 81% | 26% | 12% |
 New York Giants | 5-3-1 | 69% | 67% | 1% |
 Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 65% | 11% | 4% |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 45% | 45% | 0% |
 Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 41% | 5% | 1% |
 Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 36% | 3% | 1% |
 Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 25% | 24% | 0% |
 Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 24% | 22% | <1% |
 New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 19% | 18% | <1% |
 Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 13% | 12% | 0% |
 Washington Commanders | 3-5-1 | 12% | 11% | 0% |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 1% | 1% | 0% |
 Arizona Cardinals | 3-6 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Questions people ask
How does the NFL playoff simulator work?
It plays the 135 games that are left 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a weighted coin: this week's games use the DraftKings line, later weeks use each team's scoring margin so far. After every simulated season the NFL's tiebreakers set the seven seeds in each conference, and the table counts how often each team got in.
Is this the same as a playoff machine?
People call this kind of tool a playoff machine. Here the simulator gives the odds, and the predictor page lets you pick each game yourself and see who gets in, with the tiebreaker that decided each seed.
Which teams are safest right now?
In our latest 10,000 runs, Bills, Jaguars, Chiefs, 49ers made the playoffs at least 95% of the time.
How often do the odds update?
After every game. Scores and lines refresh every 15 minutes, and you can run your own 10,000 seasons at any time with the button above the tables.